Anticipating the unforeseeable? ESG risk management in mining companies

The aim of this article is to investigate the foreseeability of environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in the mining sector by analyzing the impacts anticipated when mining projects were first submitted to the authorities, and crises or critical incidents observed ex-post at mining sites. An in-depth analysis of 57 critical sustainability incidents that occurred at 19 different Canadian mining sites, and of the way in which companies and stakeholders anticipated or failed to anticipate them in prior risk analyses, enables us to map the main impacts of this industry and to highlight the uneven ability of companies and stakeholders to effectively anticipate them. The results obtained were analyzed through an integrative model with four main configurations of risk foreseeability: high-visibility risks (good anticipation by both companies and stakeholders), stakeholder red flags (risks identified by stakeholders only), corporate foresight (risks identified by companies only) and black swans (risks neglected by both companies and stakeholders). This article makes substantial contributions to the literature on the foreseeability of ESG risks, the uncertain ways that polluting companies integrate such risks into their planning, and the management of critical sustainability incidents. Practical implications and avenues for future research are also developed. • Risk can be anticipated by companies or stakeholders. • Mining companies de not systematically integrate ESG risks into their planning. • Critical incidents are multidimensional and can cover many ESG risks. • Stakeholders are better than companies to anticipate ESG risks.