Decoupling economic growth and carbon emissions: a time-varying analysis of the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis in France (1890–2019)

Abstract Global concerns regarding climate change and the necessity for sustainable economic pathways have sharpened the focus on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. For France, grasping the long-term dynamics between economic expansion, energy usage, and technological advancement is vital for creating effective low-carbon strategies. To explore this, we utilize an extensive dataset spanning 1890–2019 and employ sophisticated econometric methods. These include unit root tests incorporating Fourier functions, a cointegration test adept at handling both smooth and abrupt structural breaks, the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality procedure, and partial wavelet coherency analysis. Our goal is to rigorously probe the enduring connections among carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, energy consumption, economic freedom, and total factor productivity. The empirical analysis confirms a stable cointegrating link between these variables. Notably, both energy consumption and economic freedom show a significant positive correlation with CO₂ emissions. Evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis—specifically, an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and emissions—appears only during distinct historical periods. Furthermore, time-varying coefficient estimates and causality tests reveal evolving dynamics influenced by structural transformations, economic occurrences, and technological progress. These outcomes suggest that decoupling economic growth from environmental harm in France hinges on policies that bolster energy efficiency, carefully integrate economic freedom with strong environmental rules, and actively promote green technological innovation. Graphical Abstract