Political Leanings in Web3 Betting: Decoding the Interplay of Political and Profitable Motives

Harnessing blockchain's transparent user behavior data, we construct the Political Betting Leaning Score (PBLS) to measure political leanings in Web3 prediction markets.Focusing on Polymarket, we analyze behaviors across more than 15,000 addresses, 4,500 events, and 8,500 markets, capturing the intensity and direction of their political leanings by the PBLS.We validate PBLS through internal consistency checks and external comparisons and explore its relationships with over 800 behavioral features.A 2022 U.S. Senate election case demonstrates our measurement's effectiveness while decoding the interaction between political and profitable motives.The insights contribute to understanding decentralized market behavior, demonstrate blockchain's potential in innovative studies, and advance the broader development of prediction markets. CCS Concepts Human-centered computing Empirical studies in collaborative and social computing.