Gradual Change in Foreign Policy: A Role-Theoretic Approach

Abstract An international actor’s foreign policy can undergo both rapid change and gradual adjustment over time. While the former has been linked to some form of crisis or shock, the latter has yet to be systematically explored in foreign policy analysis (FPA). This paper proposes a new theoretical framework for tracing incremental and gradual change in an actor’s foreign policy from a role theory perspective. Four types of steady adjustment regarding foreign policy roles are identified: role displacement (when one role starts to become central and pushes another one to the periphery); role layering (when the actor adds new traits and dimensions to an existing role); role drifting (when a role remains the same but the social context and related demands change, to the extent that the role loses its value); and role conversion (when a latent role in an actor’s repertoire is redeployed to new ends and means). To illustrate how this new theory of incremental change contributes to FPA, systematic analysis of two processes of foreign policy role adjustment is offered regarding Mexico’s leader role and Sweden’s neutral role, respectively.