Comprehensive Modeling of Climate Risk in the Dominican Republic Using a Multivariate Simulator

This study introduces a multivariate simulation framework for assessing climate risks in the Dominican Republic. The simulator operates in two modes—climate risk evaluation and disaster management—using a unified database. This database integrates codified variables associated with global warming, hazards, vulnerabilities (including their interdependencies), and adaptive capacities, facilitating risk assessments across diverse scenarios. Simulations are initiated using predefined variable combinations, interconnected via Boolean algebra, to generate risk levels aligned with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scales. The key findings underscore the influence of specific variables within the modeled scenarios. For instance, inadequate energy management and insufficient mitigation measures significantly amplify climate risks, particularly in regions with vulnerable infrastructure. Validation against established models, including EN-ROADS and PRECIS, confirms the simulator’s predictive accuracy and reliability. This study highlights the critical role of regionalized risk assessments in developing targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies that address localized vulnerabilities. The proposed simulator provides an innovative tool for real-time climate risk assessment, enabling policymakers to model potential outcomes and optimize decision-making processes. Future improvements should focus on enhancing spatial resolution, integrating real-time data, and refining models of infrastructure interdependencies. This research advances the development of evidence-based climate risk assessment tools, supporting informed policymaking and effective disaster risk management in the Dominican Republic.