The impact of digital economy on urban green and low-carbon development: mechanism and spatial spillover effect

Introduction With the increasing urgency of sustainable development, understanding the role of the digital economy in promoting green and low-carbon transformation has become a key research focus. This study investigates the impact of the digital economy on urban green and low-carbon development in China, examining its underlying mechanism and spatial spillover effect. Methods This study employs panel data from 278 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2012 to 2023. Urban green and low-carbon development is measured by green total factor productivity, calculated using the super-efficiency SBM model and the Global Malmquist-Luenberger index. Digital economy is calculated through principal component analysis. The empirical analysis employs OLS and two-way fixed effects model, while threshold model and spatial Durbin model are applied to examine the threshold effect of environmental regulation and the spatial spillover effect of digital economy. Results The digital economy promotes urban green and low-carbon development, with the impact mechanism being the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, enhancement of green innovation efficiency, and improvement of resource allocation efficiency. The stricter the environmental regulation, the more significant the promoting effect of the digital economy. The impact of the digital economy is more significant in capital cities, central regions, non-resource-based cities, and the third batch of low-carbon pilot cities. The digital economy generates a negative spillover effect on the green and low-carbon development of surrounding cities. Discussion These results highlight the dual effects of the digital economy, both in driving local green and low-carbon development and in potentially intensifying regional disparities. Policy implications include the need to strengthen digital infrastructure, reinforce environmental regulations, and promote regional coordination to mitigate spillover risks and achieve balanced green and low-carbon development.