Spatial-temporal pattern and supply-demand balance of land use carbon sequestration from a low-carbon perspective: A case study of Guizhou Province

• Guizhou's karst region has maintained a carbon sequestration surplus for two decades, balancing supply and demand effectively. • The high carbon service supply and demand ratio (CSSDR) was currently mainly dependent on regional forest cover. • Land use restructuring is crucial to achieving carbon neutrality in Guizhou Province. In the pursuit of “carbon neutrality” and sustainable development, understanding the supply–demand dynamics and sustainability of regional carbon sequestration is vital for balancing ecological and economic growth. This study focus Guizhou Province, a typical karst region in southwestern China characterized by ecological fragility and significant carbon sequestration potential, to analyze the spatial–temporal evolution of carbon sequestration supply and demand from 2000 to 2020. Using the InVEST model, carbon emission factor method, gravity center migration model, and spatial autocorrelation analysis, we integrated multi-temporal land use and socio-economic data to assess the carbon sequestration supply–demand relationship. Key findings include: (1) Guizhou’ s carbon sequestration supply increased by 465 million tons, primarily from forestland and cultivated land, with a notable northwestward shift in supply. (2) Demand surged by 408 million tons, primarily driven by urban expansion in the northeast. (3) The carbon service supply and demandratio (CSSDR) declined from 0.53 to 0.44, revealing a shrinking surplus and significant spatial mismatch, particularly in urbanizing areas. These results provide a scientific basis for spatially differentiated land use policies and ecological compensation mechanisms, offering a replicable framework for other ecologically vulnerable regions pursuing carbon neutrality.