Research on Carbon Tariff Rate Forecasting Based on EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

The current international trade rules are facing profound changes, green trade barriers represented by carbon tariffs and their impact have become an important issue in the evolution of global trade. Some countries are reshaping international trade rules with green standards. These measures put pressure on high-carbon emitting industries in developing countries and have an impact on their trade competitiveness. Based on this background, this paper studies the future carbon tariff level and discusses the impact of international trade and industrial competition pattern. The GTAP-E model was used to simulate the implementation of carbon tariffs in different scenarios to study the impact of carbon tariffs on trade in various industries and some countries and economic organizations. The study found that high-carbon industries will face a greater impact, while low-carbon industries will be relatively less affected. Therefore, developing countries should actively participate in the formulation of global green trade rules and build their own discourse system. Optimize the industrial structure, promote the transformation of high-carbon industries to low-carbon, and enhance the innovation capacity of green technology; Improve the carbon accounting system and carbon trading market, better adapt to the international green trade environment, and jointly write a new chapter of green trade rules.