Forecasting of area, production and productivity of Mustard using time series analysis in India

This study is done with objective of forecasting of area, production and productivity of mustard using time series analysis in India. Secondary data are area, production and productivity has collected from official web sites of Directorate of Economics and Statistics of India. For achieving objective, data from 1976 to 2021 are analyzed. This study uses time series analysis model ARIMA to forecast mustard area, production and productivity. The statistical software R and SPSS, were employed for analysis purpose. To validate the fitted models and testing the accuracy of the fitted models different indices like R-squared, RMSE, MAPE, MAE and were used. The results showed that the ARIMA (0,1,0), (0,1,0), (0,1,1) and models are suitable for forecasting mustard area, production and productivity in India. We found that models are well fitted with MAPE value for area (8.788), production (15.335) and productivity (7.790). Thus the study concluded that the, over the time data of area, production and productivity of mustard over all it is found bestARIMA model for India.