A large-scale study on the seasonality of marriages (Italy 1810–12)

This article addresses the topic of marriage seasonality in Italy during the early 19th century. Our goal is to explore the links between the seasonal distribution of weddings and the country’s various territorial contexts. By doing so, we aim to deepen our understanding of how marriage practices intersected with environmental, economic, and religious factors. The data are collected at the municipal level from the Napoleonic Civil Registers in the years 1810–12. The study encompasses over 85,000 marriages across 774 municipalities scattered throughout Italy. The methodology is articulated into three distinct phases. First, we carried out a hierarchical cluster analysis. The second phase involved conducting a Principal Component Analysis (PCA). In the final phase, a multinomial regression model is estimated. Four main seasonality models are identified. The first model, prevalent in North-western Italy, highlights a predominance of weddings in January-February. The second, widespread in the North-East reveals a concentration in the months of February and November. The third model, the most widespread, shows low levels of seasonality. The fourth model, concentrated in mountainous regions, provides for a particular frequency in summer. The distribution of marriages throughout the year is associated with the occupation of the spouses. Even religious prescriptions seem to play a significant role, but economic factors are more influential.