The nexus between poverty reduction and carbon emissions: Insights from Hubei, China during the Targeted Poverty Alleviation Period

• This study examines the nexus between poverty reduction and carbon emissions. • Spatial-temporal analysis supports the win-win hypothesis at the county level. • CO₂ sequestration through vegetation promotes poverty alleviation while reducing carbon emissions. • GDP growth, electricity consumption, and agriculture show complex impacts on poverty reduction and emissions. • CCER trading mechanisms provide effective ecological poverty alleviation pathways. Wiping out poverty while controlling carbon emissions is a major challenge of our time. China eradicated extreme poverty in 2020 through the targeted poverty alleviation (TPA) strategy, providing a unique case to examine the poverty-carbon nexus at the subnational level. This paper investigates the nexus between county-level poverty reduction and carbon emissions in Hubei province during the TPA period. Our findings support the win-win hypothesis, indicating that poverty reduction and emissions control can be achieved simultaneously. CO₂ sequestration through vegetation emerged as a key factor benefiting both objectives, with a 1% increase reducing poverty by 0.42% and lowering carbon emissions by 0.19%. Economic growth contributed to poverty alleviation but increased emissions: a 1% rise in GDP reduced poverty by 0.44% while raising emissions by 0.70%. Conversely, a 1% increase in electricity consumption raised poverty by 0.46% and lowered emissions by 0.12%. Agricultural development showed a 1% increase correlated with 0.52% higher poverty and 0.17% higher emissions. “Carbon Sink+” trading mechanisms facilitated ecological poverty alleviation in impoverished areas. Panel causality analysis confirms a bidirectional relationship between poverty reduction and carbon emissions. These findings highlight the potential for integrated strategies that advance both poverty alleviation and emissions reduction while considering the complex socioeconomic dynamics necessary to achieve sustainable development goals.