(A)symmetric effects of climate changes on food and crop production in Pakistan

Abstract Over the last few decades, every single economic sector in the world has been in danger as a result of climate change; however, the agricultural sector is particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change due to its high degree of dependence. Pakistan's agricultural and food productivity, and rural livelihoods, have all suffered significant setbacks over the past few decades as a direct result of factors related to global and regional climate dynamics. Therefore, this study aims to examine the symmetric and (a)symmetric effects of climatic changes on food and crop production in Pakistan. For empirical analysis, this study utilized the linear and non-linear ARDL approaches by using the annual time series data over the period 1960–2020. The findings of the linear ARDL model reveal that temperature adversely affects food production, while precipitation enhances the total production of food in Pakistan. The findings of the non-linear ARDL model indicate that the effects of temperature are quite asymmetric as both positive and negative changes to temperature damage food production with different intensities. Further, asymmetric effects are found for changes in precipitation as negative changes adversely affect food production; whereas positive changes in precipitation boost it. Similarly, maximum temperature poses adverse effects on food production, whereas maximum precipitation enhances it. The average change, as well as the positive temperature change, adversely affects crop production, whereas average precipitation and minimum precipitation assert favorable effects on crop production. The results also indicate that natural disasters have detrimental effects. Contrary to this, the duration of sunshine boosts both food and crop production during the examined period. Based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that climate-vulnerable crops should be identified, and region-specific adaptive measures be implemented. Additionally, climate-resilient and short-duration crops should be promoted, and investments should be made in crop biotechnology to improve yields and resistance to extreme temperatures.