Exploring the digital footprints of migration: insights from google trends and protection seekers’ applications to Germany

Abstract This study investigates the potential of using Google Trends data to understand migration dynamics, focusing on people seeking protection in Germany between 2015 and 2019. By analyzing the relationship between changes in migration flows, expressed as percentage changes, and online search interest in Germany from origin countries, the study explores how digital behavior may reflect migration intentions. A weak but statistically significant positive correlation is observed, with regression analyses indicating a stronger relationship when controlling for year- and country-fixed effects. Notably, the coefficient increases markedly when focusing specifically on the top 10 origin countries, highlighting the potential of digital indicators in capturing migration intentions during acute migratory crises. The findings support the hypothesis that spikes in online search interest could signal interest in Germany among people seeking protection prior to migration. Despite limitations such as the reliance on relative search interest and low predictive power in the simple model, the study demonstrates the potential utility of digital data as a supplementary tool in migration research. Integrating such insights with traditional data sources can enhance understanding of the multifaceted drivers behind migration flows.