Carbon risk transmission analysis of China's construction industry based on embodied carbon linkage networks

As a key area for realizing the dual carbon goals in China, the low-carbon transformation of the construction industry faces the problem of balancing policy strength and risk prevention and control. Aiming at the lack of systematic risk transmission mechanism analysis in current research, this study breaks through the traditional linear analysis framework and innovatively constructs a complex network analysis model. Based on China's input-output data, this paper systematically reveals for the first time the topological characteristics of the construction industry's embodied carbon transfer and risk conduction through the combination of input-output analysis and complex network theory: (1) The intensity of the construction industry's upstream and downstream industries' embodied carbon transfers shows a significant difference, with the upstream averaging 0.7567 kg/CNY annually and the downstream 0.0005 kg/CNY, and the Metal smelting and rolling products ( accounting for 33.4 %) and Non-metallic mineral products (29.2 %) constitute the main risk sources; (2) The industry linkage network presents a “core-edge” structure, and the construction industry is in the downstream of the network, bearing 14 % of the embodied carbon transfer of the whole economic system, and it is the biggest victim of the upstream embodied carbon risk transfer; (3) The carbon risk transfer path of the construction industry is relatively centralized, and the key paths of the upstream energy-consuming industry's embodied carbon risk transfer are terminated mainly by the construction industry. Based on the study results, targeted policy recommendations are put forward from three aspects: carbon budget management system, supply chain carbon cost leveling mechanism, and low-carbon supply chain of the construction industry. It is intended to provide a reference for carbon risk avoidance in the construction industry. • Introduced risk transmission mechanisms based on input-output and complex networks. • Accurately measured the carbon emissions and embodied carbon transfers of various industries in China. • Constructed a reliable inter-industry embodied carbon network and risk network for China's construction industry. • Carbon transfer and carbon risk transfer relationships between industries can highlight the position of each industry. • Exploring embodied carbon transfer and risk modelling in construction and other sectors.