Climate change reduces and shifts suitable habitats of Uapaca kirkiana Müll. Arg. to higher altitudes in Malawi

Climate change is expected to affect the distribution of species worldwide. Understanding how these changes impact species distribution is essential for designing conservation strategies and sustainable management approaches. Uapaca kirkiana Müll. Arg. holds significant ecological and socio-economic importance in Malawi but is highly threatened in its natural habitat. We investigated the impact of climate change on the ecological niche of U. kirkiana and identify both suitable and priority habitats for its conservation and cultivation in Malawi. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm was used to model the current and future distribution of the species based on 21 environmental variables and 480 species occurrences. Habitat prioritization was performed using Zonation software. Our results showed that only temperature-related variables including isothermality (percent contribution of 15%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (12%), mean temperature of the driest quarter (10%), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (8%) determined the current distribution of U. kirkiana . Overall, 9.29% of Malawi was predicted as highly suitable for U. kirkiana occurrence, 17.39% moderately suitable and 25.20% poorly suitable. This suitable habitat is projected to decrease in the future climate scenarios, from 9.29% under the current conditions to 8.01% under the SSP3-7.0 scenario and to 6.21% under the SSP5-8.5, respectively, by 2055. Priority areas for the conservation and cultivation of U. kirkiana were mainly located in the northern (21%) and central (13%) regions. Our findings suggest that climate change will lead to a reduction in the species' suitable habitat and a shift along the South-North gradient toward higher elevations. Our study further highlights the urgent need to incorporate climate change projections into conservation planning for the species. Effective conservation and sustainability efforts should prioritize suitable habitats in the northern and central regions.