Business case analytics for avocado, chili and poultry value chains in Rwanda: Implications on Job Creation

Globally, agricultural value chains are undergoing rapid transformation driven by technological advancement and the need for sustainable development. While developing agencies increasingly recognize agriculture's potential for job creation and economic growth, systematic approaches to evaluate business cases that combine both financial viability and social benefits remain scarce. We address this knowledge gap through employing an innovative analytical framework to assess business cases, focusing on avocado, chili and poultry value chains. We integrate predictive analytics with traditional financial assessment tools to evaluate the economic viability and job creation potential of the value chains. An artificial neural network (ANN) with early stopping combined with comprehensive financial metrics analysis assessed the social and financial viability of the business cases. Primary data from businesses in Rwanda and secondary data from national agricultural databases informed our predictive models, which were validated through a 5-fold cross-validation and evaluated for precision, accuracy and recall. The study finds that expanding Chili cultivation from 533 to 4457 hectares catalyses a cascade of employment opportunities, with >22,232 jobs predicted in production, 17,299 in storage and aggregation, and 17,024 in oil processing in a space of 5 years. The study further identified critical success factors including access to finance, technical expertise, and market linkages that significantly influence both financial performance and job creation outcomes. The study's analytical framework offers a replicable model for evaluating agricultural business cases that balance financial returns with social impact, particularly relevant for developing economies seeking to optimize their agricultural investment strategies.