Trend analysis of the coupling effect between new urbanization and resources-environment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area

• Intensive, intelligent, green and low-carbon indicators are employed in SD model. • New urbanization characteristics are highlighted in assessment framework. • The coupling effect trends are analyzed on both city and urban cluster scales. • Distinct spatial heterogeneities of coupling effects were founded and discussed. • Management strategy of multi-sector cooperation was suggested based on this study. Achieving sustainable urbanization necessitates the assurance of the stability and functionality of the urbanization-resource-environment system, but extant studies lack adequate methods for dynamic prediction and analysis of new urbanization characteristics. This study constructs an urbanization-resource-environment system dynamics (SD) model that highlights the new urbanization characteristics to simulate and predict the development trends from 1990 to 2035 at urban cluster and city scales. Additionally, it develops a comprehensive coupling coordination model to evaluate the multidimensional dynamics of the coupling relationship and the main control elements. The findings indicated that the urbanization-resource-environment coupling effects of various cities within the Greater Bay Area exhibit distinct spatial heterogeneities attributable to their disparate resource endowments and development processes, the coupling coordination development index (CDI) of core cities like Hong Kong and Shenzhen had declined by about 0.2, while peripheral cities like Huizhou sustained growth. However, the CDI of urban cluster fluctuating steadily at 0.63–0.72 with an average annual increase of about 0.2%, indicating minimal risk of imbalance in coupling development. Among these factors, urbanization indicators reveal a gradual deceleration in growth trend after 2025, while the resources utilization of the urban cluster tends to be stable, and the coordination of the environmental system relies more on intermittent policy regulation. Furthermore, the examination of trends and controlling factors offers policymakers the opportunity to implement targeted management strategies and multidimensional macro-control planning. The framework is also applicable to other rapidly developing urban clusters, providing a scientific basis for urban planning, ecological protection, and sustainable development.