Historical trends and forecast of health indicators of a child under 5 years

nder-5 mortality (U5M) is the most sensitive indicator for the evaluation of the access to quality healthcare. A retrospective longitudinal study of the U5M trend was carried out by analyzing the indicators from 1990-2020. We forecast the evolution of the U5M by 2030 based on historical time series, applying the ARIMA (0,1,0) model. A total decline in U5M of 58.33% was found, with an annual reduction rate of 2.29%, especially due to post-neonatal mortality (1-59 months) until the year 2000. Forecast of mortality of children aged 0-5 years established a forward-looking prediction of decline.