Fertilizer use, deforestation, and energy consumption: key drivers of nitrous oxide emissions in Indonesia

Abstract Climate change poses a global challenge, with agriculture being a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly nitrous oxide (N 2 O). This study examines the impact of agricultural practices, deforestation, and energy consumption on N 2 O emissions in Indonesia from 1990 to 2020, focusing on fertilizer use, manure management, and deforestation. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, both short- and long-term relationships between these factors and N 2 O emissions are analyzed. Results indicate that fertilizer use (β = 0.3699, p < 0.01) and manure management (β = 0.2816, p < 0.01) significantly contribute to N₂O emissions, with deforestation, particularly for palm oil plantations, further exacerbating emissions. Additionally, fossil fuel consumption in agriculture amplifies the problem. The study underscores the need for integrated mitigation strategies, including precision agriculture, improved manure management, deforestation regulation, and renewable energy transition. However, limitations include imputed data from FAO records and potential inconsistencies in WDI data, warranting future refinement. Moreover, the national-level data does not capture regional variations in agricultural practices, soil types, and climate conditions, suggesting that future studies should focus on regional disparities to better tailor emission reduction strategies to local contexts. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to mitigate agricultural emissions while ensuring sustainability and meeting Indonesia's climate goals. Addressing regional differences and integrating local-level data into policy development will be crucial to effectively combatting N 2 O emissions across Indonesia.