Identification, Analysis, and Prioritization of Effective Components of Agricultural Commodity Exchange with a Financial Foresight Approach

The present study was conducted to identify and analyze the effective components of the agricultural commodity exchange with a scenario planning approach and to identify and analyze the scenarios of the agricultural commodity exchange. In this study, the cross-impact analysis method was used. In fact, 30 effective indicators in realizing the creative city were compared in pairs, and the impact of these factors on each other was evaluated using expert questionnaires in MICMAC software. The results of the studies showed that 10 factors (culture and society, government policies, market and demand, technology and innovation, human resources, infrastructure, risk and crisis management, international interactions, sustainability and environment, and supply chain) can be considered as key factors in the agricultural commodity exchange. To develop scenarios for the agricultural commodity exchange, a scenario portfolio was prepared for the 10 key factors; in such a way that for each factor, three optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic assumptions were considered. In total, 21 possible situations were designed, and based on the combination of 21 possible situations, 2187 combined scenarios were extracted, which include all possible situations and future developments of the agricultural commodity exchange. Based on the results of the Scenario Wizard software, an inconsistent assumption was found in the "culture and society" component. For each of the components of "government policies," "market and demand," "technology and innovation," "human resources," "infrastructure," "risk and crisis management," "international interactions," "sustainability and environment," and "supply chain," the selected assumption is supported by other scenario assumptions, and none of the other assumptions contradict it. The selected assumption was evaluated as consistent. Overall, this analysis shows that the presented scenario, despite the inconsistency in the "culture and society" component, has relatively good consistency in other components.