Save the World or Make a Deal? An Ideological Diagnoses of China–US Relations and the Possibility of Escaping the Thucydides Trap

ABSTRACT This article explores the overlooked dimension of ideology in China–US relations. It argues that ideologies are likely to increase the tendency for war when they contain an eschatological structure that frames conflict with an ideological opponent as a moral choice, if not a moral imperative. Three ideologies will be analyzed—American Exceptionalism, America First, and Chinese Socialism. I show that American Exceptionalism has an eschatological framework, whereas America First and Chinese Socialism do not. I diagnose that a combination of American Exceptionalism and Chinese Socialism is most likely to produce a tendency toward war, whereas America First and Chinese Socialism is the most likely combination to escape the Thucydides Trap. The article will end with future prognosis of ways in which the ideological dimension of the Trap can be mitigated and avoided.