The Effect of Democratic Backsliding on Carbon Emissions Intensity

This study examines the relationship between democratic backsliding and carbon emissions intensity, hypothesizing that government-induced economic failures in both public and private sectors increase emissions by exploiting environmental resources and diverting capital flow toward carbon-heavy energy sources. Employing fixed-effects regression on data from 153 countries between 2010 and 2022, the quantitative analysis finds a strong positive correlation between democratic backsliding and emissions levels. Complementary case studies of Nicaragua and Mali, the two regimes with the highest magnitude of backsliding during the studied period, offer qualitative evidence of derailed decarbonization efforts. These results are consistent with rent-seeking theory, endogenous growth theory, and the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, emphasizing the role of stable governance in addressing intricate climate issues. Without sustained reforms supported by domestic and international groups, economic incentives will remain distorted in regressing nations, perpetuating cyclic fossil fuel reliance and stalling progress. Therefore, achieving global decarbonization targets and averting the most catastrophic climate effects will depend on the capability of the international community to decelerate democratic backsliding in affected countries and prevent its emergence elsewhere.