Worst-Case Scenarios for a Turbulent World – Modelling How Far and How Costly Defence and Security Could Go –

The turbulent world we are living in now prompts planners and prospective studies specialists to address the requests of worst-case scenarios and catastrophe scenarios with low probability and high impact, to draft the level of costs of tackling such threats in the short, mid and long-term. It is also a part of the debate about costs and consequence-oriented finances of the security and defence, and resumes the level of ambition and capacity of a state to fulfil one of its basic responsibilities. A change of leadership in the US presidential race and in the administration, perspectives of NATO as a common defence organisation that ensures today’s defence and security guarantees in Europe, extreme right forces in key governments of democratic European member countries, pro-Russian forces with veto rights in governmental policies, debate about nuclear umbrella possible changes, all constitute scenarios that someone would not wish to analyse. But no responsible government or leader of a country, at least from the Eastern Flank, could avoid foresee and prepare for even the tiniest possibility that such a scenario happens in 6-12 months, 3-5 years, 10-15 years. Our paper researches a number of worst-case scenarios, impact, consequences and costs in order to warn about the need for prospective studies and preventive anticipated actions for a credible deterrence and a suitable defence. Our methodology is in the prospective studies field, in the niche of the worst-case scenarios and catastrophe scenarios.