Export performance of Indian onion: Markov chain approach

The study revealed that the growth in export value was found to be the highest (14.14%) followed by the growth in production (6.23%) and area (5.02%) and was found significant at 1% level. More instability was also observed in the export value (17.72%) followed by area (7.91%) and production (6.42%). Markov chain analysis and transition probability matrix indicated that Nepal was found to be the most liable country to import Indian onions, with 68.69% of its previous year’s trade. Similarly, the countries pooled under others, Malaysia and Bangladesh, were also found to be liable countries since they retained almost more or less equal to 50% of their previous year’s trade. Therefore, Export policies of India need to be oriented towards these countries since these countries can be trusted and India can rely on these countries to export the onion. India can also think of identifying those minor countries pooled under the category ‘others’ that are retaining a considerably good percentage of trade from the previous year.