Determinants of Sustainable Economic Growth in Angola: A Case Study on Agriculture

Abstract This study analyzes the impact of the agricultural sector on economic growth in Angola and suggests policy recommendations. Annual time series data from 1993 to 2022 were used. The ARDL and error correction models were applied to analyze both long- and short-term relationships, and different statistical and econometric tests were used to examine the significance of the input data and model results, including various diagnostic tests and the Granger causality test. The study findings show stronger evidence of a long-term relationship between the dependent and independent variables than in the short run. The short-term results show themselves to be statistically insignificant. Value-added agriculture, as a metric, shows the best reaction in all the lags involved, indicating that economic growth would, caeteris paribus, respond positively to an improvement in agricultural performance in Angola, albeit after a 3-year delay. Value-added agricultural development would improve both the contribution of agricultural employment and agricultural exports toward economic growth, as well contributing to better rural development in Angola