The effects of economic development and regional disparity on fertility rates in South Korea, 2000 – 2020

The declining total fertility rate in South Korea is a pressing issue, prompting numerous studies aimed at identifying the factors affecting fertility rates. However, limited empirical research has focused on investigating the relationship between regional economic disparity and fertility. This study examines the effects of economic development and regional economic disparity on fertility rates. Employing bivariate models, spatial panel models, and time series models, data on the total fertility rate across 16 metropolitan areas over a 20-year period from 2000 were analyzed. The findings indicate that economic development, as observed in the spatial panel model, has a positive effect on childbirth, although it does not reach statistical significance in the nationwide time series model when accounting for the regional disparity. Conversely, the study reveals a negative impact of Gross Regional Domestic Product disparity among regions on the total fertility rate. Consequently, this research underscores the importance of balanced national development in improving fertility rates, highlighting the detrimental consequences of widening regional disparity on low fertility. In addition, the study offers policy measures to address the challenge of local extinction.