Through the Eye of the Storm: Post-Hurricane Migration in Florida's Panhandle

Research indicates that post-disaster migration patterns change over time, and that moves within the first year after a disaster are substantively different than those in the years that follow. In this research, we examine migration at one and three years following the October 2018 Category 5 Hurricane Michael that hit the Florida Panhandle. We gauge the magnitude of displacement and migration following the hurricane and examine how housing and financial factors guided relocation decisions by displaced residents. We assess whether post-disaster migrants moved to areas with more or fewer amenities on average and consider how postdisaster migration might affect neighborhood inequality by studying destination quality. In our study, we use a geocoded, individual-level longitudinal panel to understand how Hurricane Michael affected displacement and migration from the Florida Panhandle in the three years following the storm. Following calls by Fussell (2018) for a causal-based methodology in post-disaster migration research, we use a treatment and control design. In addition to studying migration out of Panama City (Bay County), Florida, which was directly impacted by the storm, we analyze nearby Escambia County, Florida, as a point of comparison. Escambia County has similar economic and demographic factors but was unaffected by the hurricane. The overall out-migration rate from Bay County in the first year after Hurricane Michael was high, with 19.6 percent of county residents changing their address in the year after the storm. That rate rose to 37.2 percent between 2019 and 2021. Using a quasi-experimental approach, we can attribute a 4.1 percent one-year migration rate to the storm, and 5.2 percent migration rate over three years when compared to unaffected Escambia County. In a regression framework, residents exposed to Hurricane Michael were 3 percent more likely to move in the following year (2019), and 3.8 percent more likely to move in the following three years (2019-2021) than Escambia County residents. Unlike some other disasters where residents return over time and the out-migration rate falls after year one, in this instance the number of residents leaving Bay County slowly increased year-over-year. In general, the residents who left Bay County because of Hurricane Michael moved to slightly better areas than the ones they departed. However, there are two qualifications to this assessment. First, the Bay county residents affected by the storm nevertheless, on average, moved to less advantaged areas following the disaster than the out-migrating residents of Escambia who were not impacted by the storm. Second, when we examine move quality by neighborhood origin, we find that the migration processes widened spatial inequality between neighborhoods. Residents from more economically advantaged areas moved to places with higher advantage; conversely, residents of economically deprived areas moved to areas with even more economic deprivation. The characteristics of those who moved advantageously paint a portrait of younger, relatively well-off residents with higher credit scores, evidence of homeownership, and a college education. This research reinforces the need to understand different types of moves following a disaster and the importance of policies that both enable residents to move successfully and support communities of residents who stay to rebuild and repair.