An Agent-based simulation model for vehicle fleet growth to review public policies for transport demand management

The increase in the number of vehicles in highly dense areas with a limited road network has become a challenge for main cities worldwide. Recent decades demographic and economic growth has generated a gradual increase in traffic congestion and the commutation times of inhabitants, which directly affects their productivity and quality of life. To counteract these impacts, governments have implemented Travel Demand Management (TDM) that restrict the circulation of private vehicles to reduce traffic congestion, while discouraging their acquisition and promoting the use of public transport. However, due to their coercive characteristics, the effectiveness of TDM to discourage the acquisition of private vehicles and their long-term effect on controlling the growth of the vehicle fleet has been harshly questioned. This research presents the recent scientific methodologies to estimate variations in car fleet growth and shows estimation variables in Medellín city using publicly available databases, as well as one method proper for the selection of the proper evaluation model. These set up scenarios for projecting the vehicle fleet based on the implementation of public policies for demand management of demand such as the restriction due to license plate-based (L&P) use and scrapping. This allows for evaluating the relationship between vehicle age allowed for the circulation of vehicles on the road network, demographic growth, and the trend increase for new vehicles.