Identification of Dominant Factors and Scenario Prediction of Ecosystem Services in the Jialing River Basin, China

The Jialing River Basin is a major sand-producing area in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and requires thorough management and ecological restoration efforts. Ecosystem services are important indicators for assessing the effectiveness of ecological restoration work. Taking the Jialing River Basin as the research object, this paper elucidates the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of various ecosystem services, identifies the main factors affecting these functions, and predicts the spatial distribution characteristics of the basin’s ecosystem service functions under future scenario models. The main conclusions drawn are as follows: From 2000 to 2020, there is a gradual increasing trend in the functions of soil conservation, wind and sand control, water conservation, and habitat quality. The main factors affecting the functions of soil conservation and wind and sand control are slope and landform type, while the main factor affecting the functions of water conservation and habitat quality is land use type. Surface elements mainly affect soil conservation and habitat quality, human activities have the greatest impact on water conservation, and climatic factors mainly affect wind and sand protection. In the future scenario, by 2050, the water source conservation function and soil conservation capacity of the Jialing River Basin will gradually increase, but the habitat quality will continue to deteriorate, and there will be no marked change in the wind and sand control capacity. The study provides a scientific basis for the formulation of corresponding environmental policies and resource management strategies, and helps to promote the sustainable development of regional ecosystem services.