Sustainable prospective proposals for utilizing modifiers in bitumen industry to address global warming

The rapid rise in greenhouse emissions has intensified climate change, highlighting the urgent need to assess its impact on critical infrastructure. Asphalt pavements, are particularly vulnerable to the stresses caused by climate change including rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns. The paper examines the impact of global warming on asphalt pavements using the Prophet model under three scenarios, focusing especially on variations in the performance grade of bitumen obtained from 34 synoptic stations of Iran. This study outlines types and precise of additives needed to meet evolving bitumen requirements through 2060. To promote sustainability in Iran's bitumen industry, this study includes a detailed economic and environmental analysis of additive production, transportation, and blending with existing bitumen sources. Findings suggest in 2060, Iran's bitumen demands can be met by producing PG 82 -16 and PG 76 -28 grades. The results showed that using styrene-butadiene-styrene (SBS) instead of crumb rubber (CR) led to a 46% increase in carbon dioxide emissions and a 1700% increase in costs. In contrast, replacing polyphosphoric acid (PPA) with crumb rubber reduced costs by 56%, while causing a 13% increase in carbon dioxide emissions. This study provides an innovative hybrid framework for temperature prediction under different scenarios using a machine learning model, forecasting bitumen performance grading, and evaluating the environmental impacts of various additives to enhance the performance of existing bitumens.