[Predicting the impact of climate change on the habitat distribution of <i>Grus nigricollis</i> based on the MaxEnt model].

Under the context of global climate change, the shifts in suitable habitats of different species have become one of the major threats to biodiversity. We simulated the distribution habitats of <i>Grus nigricollis</i> under current climatic condition and predicted potential changes under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) with the MaxEnt model based on the distribution records of <i>G. nigricollis</i> and environmental variables. The results showed that: 1) Elevation, annual temperature range, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of potential breeding habitats for <i>G. nigricollis</i>, while the wintering habitats were significantly influenced by factors such as isothermality, elevation, and temperature annual range. 2) Under the current climate condition, the breeding habitats of <i>G. nigricollis</i> were mainly distributed in Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Tibet, Sichuan of China, as well as India, with a highly suitable breeding area of 27.07×10⁴ km². The wintering grounds were primarily located in Tibet, Sichuan, Yunnan of China, as well as Bhutan, Nepal, India, and Myanmar, with a highly suitable wintering area of 21.15×10⁴ km². 3) Under future climate scenarios, the overall potential suitable habitats for <i>G. nigricollis</i> remained stable, with the retention rate of stable areas exceeding 80%. Among these, the breeding habitats showed an increasing trend, while the wintering habitats exhibited a decreasing trend. 4) Under different climate scenarios, the centroid of breeding ground of <i>G. nigricollis</i> would gene-rally move southeastward, while the centroid of wintering ground mainly moved westward, potentially reducing migration distance. By predicting the changes in the potential suitable habitat for <i>G. nigricollis</i> on a large regional scale under future climate scenarios and revealing the impact of climate change on their distribution, this study could provide a scientific basis for the conservation of <i>G. nigricollis</i> and the formulation of relevant strategies.