Predicting Chinas GDP in Future Five Years by Linear Regression and ARIMA Model

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key metric for assessing a country's economic status and level of development. As a fundamental indicator of national accounts and economic strength, GDP provides a comprehensive measure of economic activity. Therefore, accurately evaluating and forecasting GDP is essential for informed economic policymaking, strategic business investments, and the implementation of social welfare programs. Thus, delving into the GDP has numeral benefits. As the international situation is constantly changing and global economy is continuously developing, this paper particularly forecasts the change in GDP in China for future five years. Under this circumstance, the paper utilizes the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Linear Regression as the research methods to predict future GDP. Including the historical GDP dataset from National Bureau of Statistics, the paper derives different results from the forecasting, it is found that the predicted value of GDP in 2028 using ARIMA is 1031800 billion CNY, while 1663300 billion CNY using Linear Regression.