Various ARCH Models and Their Practical Applications on Apple and Pork

Agricultural price volatility is a core issue affecting the stability of the global agricultural economy. Apple and pork as a major product, the price volatility directly affects and affects people's well-being and industrial security. In recent years, due to the influence of different factors, the prices of apples and pork have fluctuated wildly. This article focuses on the following questions: Firstly, how should the short-term focus, long-term sustainability, and asymmetric effects of price fluctuations in different products be quantified? Secondly, the role of futures market and spot market in price discovery and risk tradition is different. Based on the data of apple prices and pork futures from 2017-2023, this passage uses Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model and its generalizations to analyze the data. The final findings of the study were twofold. Apple price volatility showed short-term aggregation and positive shock sensitivity, and raw pork futures market dominated prices, and the reaction to negative shocks is strong. The study was adopted the joint application of the ARCH family model compares the volatility characteristics of several agricultural products prices, and promote high-quality development of the agriculture economy.