Unveiling predictive validity of English language exam on student achievement: mediated by self-rated English proficiency

Gaining a deep understanding of the factors shaping students’ achievement in English as a foreign language (EFL) contexts, such as Ethiopia, is vital. As English serves a dual role—both as the medium of instruction and a core subject—strengthening proficiency is key not only to advancing educational equity but also to driving academic excellence across disciplines. Among the key determinants examined in the study, the first is freshman students’ prior performance in English, which serves as a foundational skill influencing their subsequent academic achievement. The second is their self-assessed proficiency, which emerges as a significant factor, warranting focused investigation within the context of the current study. To this effect, this study investigates the predictive relationship between university entrance English exam and freshman students’ achievement and the mediating role of self-assessed English proficiency. Using a cohort of 355 students from two Ethiopian public universities, the study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative analysis (linear regression and Hayes PROCESS macro 4.2 in SPSS version 27.00) with qualitative insights. Results showed university entrance English exam is a significant predictor of students’ achievement, while self-assessed proficiency had a weak and nonsignificant effect. Mediation analysis revealed that self-assessment did not mediate the relationship between the entrance exam and achievement. Qualitative findings highlight challenge as follows: limited practical language exposure, ineffective teaching methods, and unequal resource access, especially for rural learners. The study recommends enhancing practical English skills, updating teaching methods, and addressing urban-rural disparities through equitable resource distribution. In addition, it suggests aligning teaching practices with exam competencies, improving self-assessment accuracy, and exploring additional factors influencing academic achievement. Thus, this study meaningfully contributes to the body of literature scrutinizing the extrapolative role of students’ prior English language exam scores on their later academic achievement, with an explicit highlighting on the intermediating effect of self-assessed English proficiency.