Estimating the potential consequences of historical Spanish earthquakes today: PAGER risk scenarios for seismic emergency management in Spain

Abstract To influence public awareness of seismic risk in Spain and how policy-makers perceive such risk and to improve preventive efforts (from hazard maps and building codes to legislation), this work (1) synthesizes the loss and damage experienced in historical and modern times in Spain, (2) explores empirical loss scenarios by applying the USGS PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) method to some of the better studied strong historical earthquakes in Spain (specifically, we model what would happen if the Torrevieja (1829, IX–X EMS-98/X ESI-07; 389 casualties) and the Arenas del Rey (1884 IX–X EMS-98/X ESI-07; 900 casualties) events were triggered today), and (3) calculates the risk increase due to changes in population during the tourist season. All the resulting scenarios consistently show an international suggested level of response in accordance with the relevant increase in the vulnerability and exposure experienced in Spain since the mid-twentieth century. The obtained loss evaluations are difficult to cope with, thus clearly indicating that Spanish society is unprepared for this type of strong event, which has occurred in the recent past and will certainly occur in the future.