Behaviour of Market Arrivals and Prices of Wheat in Selected Markets of Uttar Pradesh

Background:Wheat is essential for both food and nutrition security, comprising a significant portion of the consumption basket. Therefore, any significant fluctuations in the price of this staple food can impact the overall economic outlook. The study examined the wholesale markets of Uttar Pradesh over a sixteen-year period, focusing on wheat crops from January 2008 to December 2023. Methods: Monthly wheat arrivals and model price was collected from Agmarknet. A twelve-month moving average was utilized to examine the seasonal patterns in wheat arrivals and prices. Result: Wheat arrived in the market in large quantities during the post-harvest season, when farmers were paid less. It clearly indicated that prices and arrivals had a negatively relation and seasonality exist in the market. The price indices were above average ( greater than 100) during the lean season (October to December, January to March) and below average ( less than 100) after the harvesting season (April to July), as higher arrivals dropped the prices during such period. The maximum value of the coefficient of variation for wheat was witnessed in Aligarh (26%) market, followed by Basti (25%) and Agra (25%). The seasonal index for prices was high in off season which reveals that there was lack of storage facilities and the production during these months was very low. This study recommended enhancing infrastructure, storage and post-harvest techniques to increase the arrivals of these commodities and ensure year-round availability, thereby minimizing prices.