Stock Market Price Prediction Based on GARCH-BO-LSTM

Current stock market price prediction research mainly uses machine and deep learning for historical data, sentiment, and macro - indicators to boost accuracy. Prediction is crucial for investors, risk management, and market stability. LSTM has strengths like handling long - term dependencies in price sequences but has long training times and high resource use. This paper gets index volatility and return data via GARCH, then uses Bayesian optimization on LSTM to enhance prediction. It validates the model by comparing four metrics with others. Using the CSI 1000 Index, the Bayesian - optimized LSTM reduces RMSE by 0.169% compared to the basic LSTM.

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Publication Details

Journal
Financial Engineering and Risk Management
Published
2025-01-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.23977/ferm.2025.080124
Primary Topic
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Stock Market Price Prediction Based on GARCH-BO-LSTM

Financial Engineering and Risk Management
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
article

Stock Market Price Prediction Based on GARCH-BO-LSTM

article en

Abstract

Current stock market price prediction research mainly uses machine and deep learning for historical data, sentiment, and macro - indicators to boost accuracy. Prediction is crucial for investors, risk management, and market stability. LSTM has strengths like handling long - term dependencies in price sequences but has long training times and high resource use. This paper gets index volatility and return data via GARCH, then uses Bayesian optimization on LSTM to enhance prediction. It validates the model by comparing four metrics with others. Using the CSI 1000 Index, the Bayesian - optimized LSTM reduces RMSE by 0.169% compared to the basic LSTM.

Financial Engineering and Risk ManagementVol. 8(1)
Shanghai University (CN), Shanghai University of Engineering Science (CN), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (CN)
Decent work and economic growth
Openalex Percentile: Top 88%
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
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