Hydromechanical Numerical Modeling Approach for Assessing Climate-Induced Risks on the Stability of Earthen Dams

Earthen dams are crucial in water resource management, offering flood control, water storage, and hydroelectric power. As climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of floods and droughts, the design and maintenance of hydraulic structures such as earthen dams face unprecedented challenges. This study investigates how climate-induced shifts in precipitation patterns and temperature affect the stability of earthen dams through comprehensive hydromechanical numerical modeling. The analysis incorporates land–climate boundary conditions (LCBC) and compares scenarios using historical records against climate change projections, considering key variables such as air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, and net radiation. Results demonstrate that implementing LCBC significantly affects the hydromechanical behavior of dams, with pore water pressure (PWP) differences reaching up to 70% in silty clay and silt soils compared to traditional analyses. The comparison between historical records and climate change predictions revealed substantial variations, particularly in clay soils, where PWP contour differences reached 60%. Stability analyses showed that wetter climate scenarios led to more stabilized conditions compared to drier predictions, with the highest median and variability in safety factor rates of change. Different soil types exhibited varying sensitivities to climate conditions, with silt showing the highest variability in stability parameters. These findings highlight the critical importance of incorporating climate change considerations and land–climate interface effects in dam safety assessments, contributing to more robust and reliable water infrastructure management strategies.