Development of a Risk Assessment Curve for a Highway Section with Numerical Modeling

As climate change accelerates the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, flood risk management has become increasingly critical, especially in flood-prone regions. This study presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the structural integrity of a highway section subjected to varying precipitation conditions. By employing depth–duration–frequency (DDF) curves and advanced numerical modeling through Plaxis, factors of safety under different hydrological scenarios are determined. The DDF curves allow for the modeling of extreme rainfall events, providing realistic flood loading conditions that are applied to the highway section for analysis. Computed safety factors serve as inputs for the development of a fragility curve, which quantifies the probability of the failure of highway embankment slope under different stress conditions. The risk assessment curve is a critical tool for evaluating the resilience of flood defense structures, enabling better risk assessment and management strategies. This study provides a framework for balancing infrastructure investments with risk reduction efforts, offering insights to mitigate flood-related damages of highway embankments in a rapidly changing climate. This study advances the understanding of flood-induced risks and provides practical solutions for enhancing highway transportation safety. The findings are especially relevant for regions vulnerable to climate-driven flood hazards, offering a data-driven approach to improving erosion resilience and minimizing potential socio-economic impacts.