FORECAST OF THE KEY RATE OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

The topic of forecasting the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is relevant, as it involves searching for new information on future monetary policy and solving the problem of high interest rates in Russia. The purpose of the scientific research is to make a short-term forecast of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Research objectives: consideration of the theoretical foundations of the monetary policy of central banks; development of the author's methodology of economic and mathematical modeling of the consumer price index in Russia, the USD/RUB currency pair, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; forecasting the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation based on economic and mathematical models. The following methods were used in the study: analysis; synthesis; ADF test; KPSS test; economic and mathematical modeling through correlation and regression analysis, identification of linear and polynomial trends; graphical; tabular...