An Ecoregional Conservation Assessment for the Northern Rockies Ecoregion and Proposed Climate Refugium in the Yaak River Watershed, USA

The incorporation of climate refugia concepts in large-scale protection efforts (e.g., 30% protected by 2030, 50% by 2050) is needed to forestall the global extinction crisis. The 8.19 M ha Northern Rockies Ecoregion (NRE) of western Montana, northeastern Washington, and northern Idaho, USA, includes the 159,822 Yaak River Watershed (YRW) in northwest Montana, a proposed climate refugium that may buffer extreme climate change effects. Climate projections show temperature increases along with reduced summer precipitation, lowered spring snowpack, and increased wildfire susceptibility across the NRE but to a lesser extent in the YRE under an intermediate emissions scenario. Overall protection levels were quite low in the NRE (2.2% in GAP 1 or 2) and even lower in the YRW (1% of national forests; the USDA Forest Service manages most of the area). Approximately 32% of forests are mature but only 2.4% and 0.25% are protected (GAP 1 or 2) within the NRE and YRW, respectively. Habitat protection levels for eight focal forest species selected to reflect conservation priorities were generally low, with only wolverine (Gulo gulo) meeting conservation targets if roadless areas were better protected. Most (~75%) Forest Service fuel reduction treatments were >1 km from structures despite congressional funds aimed at the wildland–urban interface/intermix. Increased roadless area protections would close the lower bound (30%) target for most ecosystem types and focal species but still fall short of upper targets. We recommend coupling conservation targets with strategic investments in fuel reductions aimed at the innermost buffer around structures, while reducing logging and roadbuilding in priority areas and refugia.