Stuck in the sustainable mobility transition: A spatial analysis of transport poverty risk in the Netherlands

Mobility policies aiming to reduce the use of fossil fuel vehicles put households that cannot afford sustainable transport alternatives at risk of transport poverty - i.e. limited access to work, health-care, education and social relationships. We exploit a unique set of administrative microdata covering 98 % of all privately owned fossil fuel cars in The Netherlands to calculate and map in detail, for the first time, how many households are at this risk of ‘getting stuck’ in the transition towards sustainable mobility. We find that a small group (1–3 %) of highly car-dependent Dutch households is at risk of transport poverty. In comparison with the general population, households at-risk of transport poverty drive older cars, display higher shares of single-parent families, and rely more heavily on social benefits; two-thirds of them also deal with energy poverty. Transport poverty risk shares are highest in rural areas, but absolute numbers peak in medium-sized cities. Generic excise duty reduction policies (as applied in the Netherlands) prove ineffective in supporting the most vulnerable households. This calls for targeted policy measures, while the (sub)urban context of the majority of these households suggests that improving metropolitan public transport networks and stimulating the adoption of e-bikes among low-income groups could potentially alleviate transport poverty. • We develop a framework to quantify energy transition-induced transport poverty. • Our microdata population covers 98 % of all privately owned fossil fuel cars in the Netherlands. • Around 1–3 % of Dutch households cannot afford sustainable alternatives to the fossil fuel car. • This minority mostly lives in medium-sized cities and drives yearly three times as many kilometers as non transport-poor households. • Generic excise duty reductions mostly benefit households that are not transport-poor.