Drivers of Carbon Emissions in China’s Construction Industry: A Perspective from Interregional Carbon Transfer

The construction sector is pivotal to China’s economy, with interregional trade driving carbon emission transfers. This study uses 2007–2017 panel data from 30 provinces to analyze provincial carbon transfer patterns, combining input-output analysis and complex network theory. Key findings reveal: (1) Construction emissions remained high nationwide, showing upward trends in most provinces. Major development zones dominated carbon outflows, while demand-driven and balanced development zones received significant inflows; (2) Emission outflow intensity, population size, urbanization rate, economic scale, and mechanical equipment usage positively correlated with emissions, whereas construction workers’ per capita income showed mitigating effects. Other factors demonstrated negligible impacts. These insights enable differentiated mitigation strategies: For outflow-intensive provinces in developed regions, recommendations focus on green supply chain management and advanced emission-control technologies. Inflow-concentrated areas should prioritize low-carbon procurement standards and circular construction practices. Nationwide implementation of carbon accounting mechanisms and interprovincial compensation frameworks is proposed to address transfer inequities. The integrated methodology provides a novel perspective for quantifying emission responsibilities across value chains, supporting China’s dual carbon goals through spatially optimized governance approaches.