Assessment of Meteorological Drought Risk in Marathwada Region (India) with Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis

Abstract Climate change resulting from global warming destabilizes ecosystems worldwide and increases the intensity and frequency of meteorological events. This study aims to examine climatic trends and drought stress using rainfall data from eight districts (Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Jalna, Parbhani, Hingoli, Nanded, Beed, Latur and Dharashiv) in the Marathwada region of India. For these analyses, 120 years of data covering the period between 1901 and 2020 were used. Drought indices were first obtained with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method, Sen's Slope method was used in classical trend methods, and the Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis (CETA) method used these data in modern trend methods. As a result of the analyses, when the SPI drought values were analyzed, although positive drought index values occurred less frequently, their magnitude was higher than that of negative values. When the results of both classical and modern trend methods were analyzed, it was concluded that 57.29% increasing trend, 37.5% decreasing trend and 5.21% no trend in the Upper Slope (Us) analysis. In the Lower Slope (Ls) analysis, 13.54% of the trend was increasing, 14.58% was decreasing, and 71.88% was no trend. In the Pivot Slope (Ps) analysis, it is concluded that 25% is an increasing trend, 48.96% is a decreasing trend, and 26.04% is no trend. In Sen's Slope (Ss) analysis, 23.96% of the trend is increasing, 18.75% is decreasing, and 57.29% is no trend. The results obtained will be taken into consideration in future climate modelling and adaptation strategies to be implemented at the regional level and will contribute to the establishment of sustainable environmental policies. This study provides a scientific basis for measures and strategies to be taken against climate change.