Distinguishing critical microbial community shifts from normal temporal variability in human and environmental ecosystems

Differentiating significant microbial community changes from normal fluctuations is vital for understanding microbial dynamics in human and environmental ecosystems. This knowledge could enable early warning systems to monitor critical changes affecting human or environmental health. We applied 16S rRNA gene sequencing and time-series analysis to model bacterial abundance trajectories in human gut and wastewater microbiomes. We evaluated various model architectures using datasets from two human studies and five wastewater settings. Long short-term memory (LSTM) models consistently outperformed other models in predicting bacterial abundances and detecting outliers, as measured by multiple metrics. Prediction intervals for each genus allowed us to identify significant changes and signaling shifts in community states. This study proposes a machine learning model capable of monitoring microbial communities and providing insights into their responses to internal and external factors in medical and environmental settings.