A Study of the Non-Linear Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Enterprises’ Technological Innovation Based on China’s Industrial Enterprise Digital Peer Effect

In the digital and low-carbon economy context, climate policy uncertainty’s (CPU) influence on corporate technological innovation has attracted increasing attention. However, prior studies mainly focused on the negative cost effects or singular incentive impacts of CPU on corporate innovation, with limited exploration of its non-linear effects, especially in the new scenario of the integrated development of digital and low-carbon economies. This study fills this gap by using a comprehensive dataset of China’s A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2023 and employing a fixed-effects model. It investigates how CPU impacts corporate technological innovation through the lens of digital peer effects within the same industry and region. The findings reveal a dual “inverted U-shaped” effect of CPU on corporate innovation capabilities: moderate CPU stimulates innovation via increased government subsidies, while excessive uncertainty exacerbates financing constraints, inhibiting innovation. The present study also identifies the significant moderating role of digital peer effects in mitigating the negative impacts of CPU, enhancing innovation compensation, and bolstering firms’ climate risk resilience. Notably, state-owned enterprises and manufacturing firms demonstrate superior innovation capabilities and risk resistance. This study provides new insights into understanding CPU’s impact on corporate innovation and offers valuable references for policy formulation and corporate strategy development.