The Analysis of Goals, Results, and Trends in Global Climate Policy Through the Lens of Regulatory Documents and Macroeconomics

The issue of improving the effectiveness of international climate policy, one of the main goals of which is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, poses a critical and acute challenge for the global economic system. At every COP conference and in every IPCC report, it is evident that current measures fall short. To address this gap, this study examines the structure and trends of global climate policy development through content analysis, PRISMA methodology, and correlation and regression analysis using censored Bayesian Tobit regression. The obtained results are supplemented with the LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) decomposition of the Kaya identity. The research covers 198 countries and 4241 documents spanning 1950 to 2023 that shape global climate policy. The results showed that (1) the success of climate goals varies depending on policy instruments, institutional conditions, and the time frame of analysis; (2) the greatest success in achieving climate targets was often observed in countries that adopted moderate, realistic, and institutionally supported targets; (3) in some cases, an overachievement of targets and GHG emissions reduction was a temporal observation or the result of economic decline; (4) in countries without officially declared targets, emissions also continued under similar growth trends, calling into question the effectiveness of current methods of setting up CO2 emissions reduction targets. These findings provide a deeper understanding of the factors determining the effectiveness of climate policy. They highlight key barriers to achieving too ambitious emission reduction targets, which can lead to economic shocks and a subsequent increase in environmental impact. Ultimately, this research can contribute to the development of more realistic and effective decarbonization strategies.