Environmental drivers and future distribution of invasive alien plant species in the Gaoligong Mountains, southwestern China

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) pose severe threats to global biodiversity conservation. Effective management of IAPS requires mapping their distribution and identifying the environmental factors that drive their spread. The Gaoligong Mountains, a renowned biodiversity hotspot in southwestern China, currently face the dual challenges of IAPS invasion and climate change. However, we know little about the distribution patterns, key environmental drivers, and sensitivity of IAPS to future climate change in this region. In this study, we mapped IAPS richness distribution and identified invasion hotspots throughout the Gaoligong Mountains. In addition, we assessed the relative importance of environmental variables in shaping the spatial distribution of IAPS richness and projected potential shifts in IAPS richness under various climate change scenarios. We identified 161 IAPS, primarily concentrated in the low-elevation tropical and subtropical regions along river valleys, forming belt-like invasion hotspots. The key factors shaping IAPS richness included disturbance complexity, elevation, seasonal precipitation, and vegetation types. Notably, IAPS richness significantly declined with increasing elevation and latitude but increased with higher disturbance complexity. Moreover, IAPS were more prevalent in grasslands and shrublands than in forested areas. Ensemble modeling of future climate scenarios predicted that the distribution of IAPS richness would shift to progressively higher elevations. These findings provide valuable insights for managing IAPS in mountainous regions that play a crucial role in global biodiversity conservation.