Research on Electricity Price Volatility Risk Modeling and Early Warning Considering Market Supply-Demand Equilibrium Forecasting

This paper conducts an in-depth study on the modeling and early warning of electricity price volatility risk in the electricity market. Firstly, by analyzing the current state of electricity price forecasting research both domestically and internationally, the paper identifies the limitations of existing methods and highlights the necessity for research on electricity price volatility risk modeling and early warning that considers market supply-demand equilibrium forecasting. The article provides a detailed introduction to the three main steps of electricity price forecasting: denoising of electricity price data, construction of electricity price models, and solution of electricity price models. On this basis, the importance of electricity price forecasting in a certain electricity market is discussed, and the internal and external factors affecting electricity prices are analyzed. The paper focuses on the application of ARIMA and SARIMAX models in monthly electricity price forecasting and compares the forecasting performance of these two models. Furthermore, this paper proposes two methods for analyzing electricity price volatility based on the characteristics of electricity price distribution and electricity price volatility risk indicators, and constructs corresponding early warning schemes. Finally, through case analysis, the effectiveness of the proposed models and methods is verified. The research in this paper provides scientific basis for electricity price risk early warning for electricity market participants, which helps to optimize resource allocation and improve economic benefits.