Static Security Analysis Method Considering Source-Load Uncertainty

The high proportion of uncertain source-load will infiltrate multiple uncertainties into the novel power system, and traditional deterministic static security analysis cannot meet this challenge. It is urgent to propose a static security analysis method that can consider multiple uncertainties in the power grid to effectively handle the uncertainty of the power grid. Therefore, this article proposes a static security analysis method based on probabilistic power flow. Firstly, this method uses polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) instead of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to calculate the probability power flow of a single scenario. Then, partial refactorization method, reuse of core data, and parallel computing strategies are proposed to accelerate the probability power flow considering the expected fault scenario. Finally, a complete static security analysis process based on probability power flow is proposed; In addition, a multi uncertainty simulation dataset was established that comprehensively considers wind power, photovoltaics, loads, and their correlations. Combined with the multi uncertainty dataset and the standard IEEE-39 node system, a calculation example was established to verify that the method proposed in this paper can quickly and accurately solve the probability density function of the voltage of each node in the power grid under various expected fault scenarios. The proposed method has significant advantages over traditional deterministic static security analysis methods.